Beijing begins the sprint to Riyadh: Who will qualify for the WTA Finals?
In the business world, Q4 is the most critical time of the year. The fourth quarter is one last chance for a company to achieve yearly goals, define the bottom line and shape an outlook for the future.
Heading into the Asian swing, the independent entrepreneurs of the Hologic WTA Tour find themselves playing with that same sense of urgency.
The singles and doubles participants in the $15 million WTA Finals in Riyadh will be determined over the next five weeks, with 1000 events in Beijing and Wuhan and 500s in Ningbo and Tokyo.
The standings in the PIF Race to the WTA Finals -- based solely on 2025 results -- are far from locked in and fall into several distinct tiers. We break down what’s at stake:
They’re in …
No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (9,610) and No. 2 Iga Swiatek (7533) -- winners of the two most recent Grand Slam singles titles -- have already qualified. Between them, they have held the top ranking for the past three-and-a-half years.
After recapturing the No. 1 nearly a year ago, Sabalenka, who pulled out of next week’s event in Beijing, has more than backed it up. She leads all women with four titles and 56 match-wins.
The 24-year-old Swiatek -- foiled in her quest to win a fourth straight title at Roland Garros by Sabalenka -- rallied famously to win Wimbledon.
Getting oh-so close …
Coco Gauff and Madison Keys, winners of this season’s first two majors, are on the brink of qualification. Their Grand Slam titles all but secure them a place in Riyadh, provided they remain inside the Top 20.
No. 3 Gauff (5,184) is next in line and when the French Open champion crosses that threshold she’ll bring the No. 5 Keys (4,450), based on her title at the Australian Open, with her.
No. 4 Amanda Anisimova (4,908), a finalist at Wimbledon and at the US Open, trails Gauff by only 276 points.
Work to do …
At 31, No. 6 Pegula (4,209) is the oldest woman in the hunt, but she’s looking to capture her fourth straight berth in the year-end championships. She won titles on three different surfaces this year (Austin, Charleston and Bad Homburg) and, as a defending finalist at the US Open, made it to the semifinals.
In a span of 22 days, No. 7 Mirra Andreeva (4,189) took back-to-back WTA 1000 titles in Dubai and Indian Wells -- at the age of 17. After turning 18, she reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
A deep run in one of these WTA 1000s, or typically successful campaigns in both would likely get them in. Pegula, a finalist in Miami, produced a record of 14-8 in this year’s 1000s. Andreeva, at 22-5, has been more successful.
On the bubble …
This race-within-the-race will have true fans checking the live rankings on a daily basis.
At the moment, No. 8 Elena Rybakina (3,751) occupies the final spot, but No. 9 Jasmine Paolini (3,526) isn’t far behind. Both players should be in a good rhythm since they played Billie Jean King Cup this past week in Shenzhen.
This is a tough one to call, because Rybakina missed the Asian events last year with an ailing back. But in her only two previous appearances, she made the semifinals two years ago in Beijing and the quarters six years ago in Wuhan.
Paolini reached the quarterfinals last year in Wuhan, losing to Zheng Qinwen.
Looking for a miracle …
Stranger things have happened.
In 2017, Caroline Garcia was outside the cut but stormed through the Asian swing, winning back-to-back titles in Wuhan and Beijing to grab the last spot at the WTA Finals, where she reached the semifinals.
Four years ago, Anett Kontaveit was ranked No. 20 in mid-October before reeling off 10 straight wins and titles in Moscow and Cluj-Napoca to scrape into the Guadalajara WTA Finals as the No. 8 seed. She went on to defeat Karolina Pliskova and Barbora Krejcikova, reached the final by beating Maria Sakkari, and finished runner-up to Garbiñe Muguruza.
Now No. 10 Ekaterina Alexandrova (2,871), No. 11 Elina Svitolina (2,606) and No. 12 Clara Tauson (2,553) are hoping for a similar late-season surge.
Doubles Race ...
The doubles team of Veronika Kudermetova and Elise Mertens were the fourth and most recent team to qualify for the 2025 WTA Finals.
With their qualification, the four Grand Slam champions from 2025 have qualified -- Katerina Siniakova/Taylor Townsend (Australian Open), Sara Errani/Jasmine Paolini (Roland Garros), Kudermetova/Mertens (Wimbledon) and Gabriela Dabrowski/Erin Routliffe (US Open).
The next four teams: No. 5. Mirra Andreeva/Diana Shnaider (4,651), No. 6. Su-Wei Hsieh/Jelena Ostapenko (3,901), No. 7. Muhammad/Demi Schuurs (3,418), No. 8 Timea Babos/Luisa Stefani (3,208).
Challenging for the last spot are No. 9. Hanyo Guo/Alexandra Panova (2,691) and 10. Beatriz Haddad Maia/Laura Siegemund (2,376).